Finance Thread - What stocks are you in, etc.

[gunn]

Here's a thread that Jonathan (CDB) started to discuss stock but morphed into a general finance thread where we brought up investment related conversations. Might as well bring this one back...

I'll start this discussion again.
Biden just blew away another $9B of student debt.

President Biden Announces an Additional $9 Billion in Student Debt Relief for 125,000 Americans | The White House

President Biden has long believed that college should be a ticket to the middle class, not a burden that weighs on families. That’s why from day one, his Administration has taken unprecedented steps to fix the broken student loan system, make college more affordable, and bring the promise of...

www.whitehouse.gov

While I have mixed feelings about this, esp since it does nothing to control the cost of higher education, I do recognize the value it has on the economy as it has the potential to free up a LOT of discretionary spending money in the budgets of middle income folks across America. Fixing the fact that no one ever got their loans forgiven under the Public Service Loan Forgiveness program under DeVos is "fair". Worth it IMO, even though it a lot of these institutions shouldn't have been allowed to charge so much for the personal economic value of the degrees they offered their students. The US as a society doesn't need nearly as many of the Theology, social services, psychology, and performing arts majors as graduate annually. That's one of the reasons why the pay is so low (in comparison, dermatologists still make pretty good money for MDs because they restrict the # of residencies offered in the US.

Q: Has this latest loan forgiveness positively helped anyone here yet? I know that CDB was hoping that this stuff would help, hence working IT in the public vs private sector for so long.

 

[Derphound01]

The correct fix would be to freeze interest and set it to 0% for existing borrowers. Pay back what tuition cost and be done with it. When they froze it in 2020, I started throwing money at mine and cut a significant portion of the interest down by the time they restarted last month.

The next fix will be to implement tuition caps at public institutions. After that, the amount you can finance for non-STEM degrees should be severely limited.

Finally, high schools need to quit shaming students for not going to college. The world needs electricians and plumbers and mechanics and truck drivers. Equip those kids to do that work instead of telling them they will be a failure if they don't go to college.

 

[dDUBb]

Finally, high schools need to quit shaming students for not going to college. The world needs electricians and plumbers and mechanics and truck drivers. Equip those kids to do that work instead of telling them they will be a failure if they don't go to college.

Thank you.

I told my boys if they don't go to college / after high school education, they are going to sign up for trade school.

 

[Derphound01]

Tennessee gives all adults 2 years of community college for free. You can use that to get an AAS in welding or a certificate in numerous other trades at Pellissippi. Other states like North Carolina have CDL training programs through the community colleges. And as much as I despise unions, they do a great job at training teenagers how to be productive members of society while also giving them gainful employment.

The days of getting by Wyotech or NADC for a trade school certificate are long over.

 

[dDUBb]

Why do you despise unions ?

 

[Derphound01]

Ever dealt with the Teamsters? That's why. But that's a different conversation for a different thread.

 

[gunn]

The correct fix would be to freeze interest and set it to 0% for existing borrowers. Pay back what tuition cost and be done with it. When they froze it in 2020, I started throwing money at mine and cut a significant portion of the interest down by the time they restarted last month.

The next fix will be to implement tuition caps at public institutions. After that, the amount you can finance for non-STEM degrees should be severely limited.

Finally, high schools need to quit shaming students for not going to college. The world needs electricians and plumbers and mechanics and truck drivers. Equip those kids to do that work instead of telling them they will be a failure if they don't go to college.

I'm largely in agreement with you except for a few small caveats:
- I like the idea of interest free loans but the reality is that some people took loans on educations that WILL NEVER pay for themselves (ex: social workers, BA psych, most of the humanities, private culinary schools, fuckin private art schools). If there is a societal benefit (social workers, teachers, etc), I don't mind comping them like the PSFL was supposed to work.

- Tuition Caps, like all price controls, IMO don't make sense. People are already self selecting away from tier 2 private schools because the degrees aren't worth the cost. Let the free market decide. Besides, laws are always circumvented. Ex: California already offers free tuition for families making under a certain threshold but IIRC they throw on a ton of fees (ex: lab fees) that jacks the price right back up.

- Free Community College is available in SF and plenty of other places. Makes total sense (esp if you didn't go to a competitive HS) because CC profs do a lot more educating than in big public Unis (where the emphasis is on the product -- aka the student -- meeting a certain level). Some of the most successful friends who didn't go to competitive magnet schools first went to CC to level up their study skills (and get the basics done at a much lower cost).

- Limiting Finance for non-STEM. In principle, I agree that non STEM degrees (largely) should NOT be financed. However, would I STOP someone taking $100K in loans to make $40K/yr? Nah. A few ideas:

1) Encourage loans in which repayments are based on income. Let the private lenders decide if this degree is worth the risk.
2) Public money should go where society needs people... maybe even trading education for a commitment to work afterwards. Military does this already. Why not with engineers, nurses, teachers, police officers, etc? Australia does this with immigration programs (you score points based on the jobs you can do and they allow immigration of folks matching those needs).
3) Private loans can do whatever they want but for degrees with poor economic value (say education cost > 150% avg expected salary), make people sign waivers acknowledging this before getting private loans. Let them see that degree XX is nothing.

- Finally, the trades. I totally agree that there shouldn't be a stigma about everyone being college bound. Some kids just aren't ready. However, of all the choices mentioned, I'm most skeptical about truck drivers as I see that this job will be quickly cut down in the next decade or two. A longhaul trucker will go from a serious job to someone who just babysits a machine and just has to hook up/disconnect trailers at each end point OR carry package X to the door (both being much less skilled jobs).

 

[Derphound01]

However, of all the choices mentioned, I'm most skeptical about truck drivers as I see that this job will be quickly cut down in the next decade or two. A longhaul trucker will go from a serious job to someone who just babysits a machine and just has to hook up/disconnect trailers at each end point OR carry package X to the door (both being much less skilled jobs).

Having been in the industry, I can confidently say that trucking will not be fully automated anytime within the next century. First, the legislation and litigation around it is already 100 years behind the time and that is not going to change soon. Second, there is not one company out there who will let a Driver-less truck haul its customers' cargo unattended from thieves or hoodlums. Third, even if the government finally modernizes its rulemaking and laws, they will never allow a hazmat shipment to be left unattended.

The ADAS systems are indeed getting smarter, but they won't phase out the Driver for a long while. If anything, truck Drivers are about to become a specialized, high-demand skill similar to that of a welder.

I also do agree that the student loan industry needs a lot more privatization. The government has a lot less risk in doling out loans than private banks do. Private banks are going to be a lot more selective in issuing loans to someone getting a M.Ed in Underwater Basket Weaving than the feds will be.

 

[dDUBb]

Having been in the industry, I can confidently say that trucking will not be fully automated anytime within the next century.

That's because the depression is coming .. in a couple months. Right ? I mean 100 years is a really long time. The trucking industry was still horse-drawn 100 years ago, remember ?

 

[Derphound01]

The trucking industry was still horse-drawn 100 years ago, remember ?

Actually it wasn't.

Consolidated Freightways - Wikipedia

en.m.wikipedia.org

100 years is a long time, but our laws on trucking are still heavily set in the past. If you go take a CDL test today, part of the air brake exam covers braking systems and techniques that were abandoned in the 1970's. If you're old enough to remember the blue knob and the "slippery" valve on a semi's dashboard, you know what I mean.

Yet still, the government requires Drivers to know it despite the equipment being all but outlawed 50 years ago.

 

[dDUBb]

Yeah. I posted pictures on the other site, a while back, of my great grandfathers horse drawn carriage of Standard Oil from 1929. Funny thing is my GGF on one side was a lawyer for Standard Oil, and the other GGF used to haul it. He also had an "auto" repair shop here in Alameda, Ca. .. until THE actual Great Depression. that was about 100 years ago, but not quite.

 

[Derphound01]

That's pretty neat. I know Standard started using the horse-drawn tankers in the 1880's or 1890's. They introduced engine-powered tankers just before the Supreme Court broke them up in 1911. By WW2, the horse-drawn tankers were all but phased out due to the demand for oil and 80 octane gasoline.

Before WW2, fuel was transported in bulk by rail car to a terminal where it was offloaded to the trucks or carriages that would travel longer distances to deliver. After the war, pipelines and barges became the primary transport method for long-distance moves while trucks began making the local deliveries.

 

[Trunk Monkey]

How's everyone's investing doing this late fall? Any end of year planning for 2024 investing?

I last bought TSLA on OCT 30 when it dropped below 200. Glad I did!

I was hoping that Walgreens (WBA) would drop below 20 but alas, it got as low as 20 and then rebounded.

 

[dDUBb]

I did the same .. picked up some more TSLA around the $200 mark. The rest of my cash on hand I funneled into a money market account @4.8% should yield around $500 a year in dividends until I figure out what to do with it ..

 

[Vicinity]

On about year two of my educational small fund trading account.
Trunk, your interest in PLTR did me well. Still holding on to about a dozen shares. I feel bad getting rid of the rest of them, but every once and a while I sell a few to put into others. The WMA not so much, but luckily I just bought one =]

In the last two years, I've seen etsy bounce around pretty wildly. Its down pretty bad , but I like to have Etsy around as a company and sure many still do so I picked up several. They were my first good move last year

Autodesk likes to bounce a bit too, but less frequently.

I like to keep my eyes on acuity also. They keep eating other companies, and spend good money on lab testing their lights

Not sure why, but I like potbelly. I have about 80 in the account if anyone has a ticker they like

 

[gunn]

On about year two of my educational small fund trading account.
Trunk, your interest in PLTR did me well. Still holding on to about a dozen shares. I feel bad getting rid of the rest of them, but every once and a while I sell a few to put into others. The WMA not so much, but luckily I just bought one =]

In the last two years, I've seen etsy bounce around pretty wildly. Its down pretty bad , but I like to have Etsy around as a company and sure many still do so I picked up several. They were my first good move last year

Autodesk likes to bounce a bit too, but less frequently.

I like to keep my eyes on acuity also. They keep eating other companies, and spend good money on lab testing their lights

Not sure why, but I like potbelly. I have about 80 in the account if anyone has a ticker they like

On Etsy, i get why they exist as an crafty alternative to ebay and my wife (and I'll admit myself) have made a few purchases there in the past few years. However, i think they lost their way a bit when they allowed their sellers to sell products that they themselves did not mfg/customize. Certain categories are now awash with garbage dropshipped/flipped from alibaba/aliexpress/wish/temu.

Can they continue to exist when customers can buy a good percentage of the same inventory cheaper directly from china (Google Lens helps here)? Sure. Can they continue to grow as a marketplace? On that, I'm less certain (which is probably reflected in the stock price).

 

[Trunk Monkey]

On about year two of my educational small fund trading account.
Trunk, your interest in PLTR did me well. Still holding on to about a dozen shares. I feel bad getting rid of the rest of them, but every once and a while I sell a few to put into others. The WMA not so much, but luckily I just bought one =]

In the last two years, I've seen etsy bounce around pretty wildly. Its down pretty bad , but I like to have Etsy around as a company and sure many still do so I picked up several. They were my first good move last year

Autodesk likes to bounce a bit too, but less frequently.

I like to keep my eyes on acuity also. They keep eating other companies, and spend good money on lab testing their lights

Not sure why, but I like potbelly. I have about 80 in the account if anyone has a ticker they like

Glad I could help. Hold onto those remaining PLTR shares. What do you have in your portfolio?

Yes, ETSY is volatile. Looks to currently be range bound between 60 and ~ 88.65. What was your plan for it? Buy and hold? Trade? Do you have an exit strategy? They don't pay a dividend.

TradingView Chart

www.tradingview.com

 

[Vicinity]

Whats the first question?

I was hoping etsy would get back up to the 90s or so. I guess I'd call most of the game swing trading. The only one Im planning on holding for a long time is GWH, and maybe KSCP

 

[Trunk Monkey]

What's the first question?

I was hoping etsy would get back up to the 90s or so. I guess I'd call most of the game swing trading. The only one I'm planning on holding for a long time is GWH, and maybe KSCP

The first question is what do you have in your portfolio. i.e. what stocks or funds do you own shares in?

My portfolio looks roughly like this. The % of portfolio numbers are % of cost basis. The percent of current value numbers are different and I haven't run the math on that yet. My largest holdings are TSLA, NVDA and GOOGL. My biggest loser is NIO.

 

[Vicinity]

I'll share it, what program generates that?

Its not pretty, this isnt a long game account and all the good news has been sold and traded for bad news. Still up though, despite loss on a majority of the portfolio

The solar companies have been kicking my ass and destroying themselves. I experienced a reverse split on a bullshit stock and was charged like 30 bucks for a reorganization fee

 

[Trunk Monkey]

I'll share it, what program generates that?

Its not pretty, this isn't a long game account and all the good news has been sold and traded for bad news. Still up though, despite loss on a majority of the portfolio

The solar companies have been kicking my ass and destroying themselves. I experienced a reverse split on a bullshit stock and was charged like 30 bucks for a reorganization fee

Owch! Yeah, got to let your winners run. I've made the same mistake. Missed a huge opportunity on FB (META) when it tanked and then rebounded. I've since joined an investing Discord and am learning a lot. I'm also able to bounce ideas off of people there. I recently missed an opportunity on Walgreens (WBA) when it bottomed at $20 before rebounding. I was expecting to to break just below 20 but it never did.

Anyway, I made that table with a Microsoft Excel spreadsheet. Nothing fancy, I dropped a few pictures of company logo's into it and spent more time than I should have adding company color themes to the various stock names.

• I inherited the Warner Brothers stock as an AT&T spin off. I never would have bought that shit.
• The SK ETF is a South Korean ETF with some pretty good exposure to SAMSUNG. I wanted to get some exposure to them but you can't buy their stock on the US exchanges.
• CrispR is a genomics play. It's been up lately on a treatment that they've developed for treating sickle cell disease that just got FDA approval but I bought it pretty high and I'm still under water on it. It's good to be LESS under water on it though!

With the green day that the market had today my 401K hit a new all time high. I'm pretty happy about that. Provided TSLA does as well as I expect it to do I plan to retire very comfortably in the next 10 years.

We really should avail ourselves of each other here. I'm more than happy to help and I know Gunn and dDub have some investing chops too.

 

[Trunk Monkey]

I doubled down on SOFI Today. Picking up more shares at 6.49

 

[dDUBb]

I've been called a war profiteer; but my holdings in Northrop Grumman, Lockheed Martin and BAE Systems have been doing well since Ukraine and Isarel.

 

[Trunk Monkey]

Updated and fixed my spreadsheet. Here are the current percentages.

I've opened a position in Walgreens effective yesterday at $20 a share.

 

[Zep5.0]

Anyone moving into CDs as this rates have been much higher than past years? Were offering 5.5% in some 15 month CDs right now. 5.6% if you have $100k in one. I've been thinking about seeing if Empower allows me any CD options instead of the normal 401k stock offerings.

 

[Trunk Monkey]

Anyone moving into CDs as this rates have been much higher than past years? Were offering 5.5% in some 15 month CDs right now. 5.6% if you have $100k in one. I've been thinking about seeing if Empower allows me any CD options instead of the normal 401k stock offerings.

I'm not a fan of tying my money up for any amount of time. Personally, I'd go with a high yield savings account.

These are all paying 5+ % without having to tie your money up for any period of time.

Best High-Yield Savings Accounts Of November 2023

High-yield savings accounts can help you grow your savings faster than traditional savings accounts. Whether you want to build an emergency fund or sock away money toward other financial goals, a high-yield savings account is a promising option. According to the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporat

www.forbes.com

 

[dDUBb]

When I worked at the bank, there were a few customers with CD strategies; interest rates at that time were around 2-3% on average. They would buy a 7 day CD, 30 day CDs and so on to stagger the money so it wouldn't be tied up. No worries on early withdrawals.. the interest is just forfeit and the CD was pointless. I have my cash in a money market savings right now ( post #14 in this thread ) .. just in case I go overboard on Xmas shopping this year and I'll decide what to do with the rest in 2024.

 

[Trunk Monkey]

When I worked at the bank, there were a few customers with CD strategies; interest rates at that time were around 2-3% on average. They would buy a 7 day CD, 30 day CDs and so on to stagger the money so it wouldn't be tied up. No worries on early withdrawals.. the interest is just forfeit and the CD was pointless. I have my cash in a money market savings right now ( post #14 in this thread ) .. just in case I go overboard on Xmas shopping this year and I'll decide what to do with the rest in 2024.

Yea, that's a CD ladder; buying one every month for a year and then you'll have one maturing every month. Take the money and run or wash and repeat.

 

[Zep5.0]

I don't trade or mess with single stocks, thus the idea of a CD versus a stalling stock market.

 

[dDUBb]

Stalling ? Or going down ??

I guess that's short term vs. Long term.

When the feds go back to cutting rates, those high % CDs will drop and stocks will go up.

My "long term theory" is that unless doomsday scenario happens; the world population and its subsequent consumerism will only continue to rise.

So if you prefer a guaranteed return versus a gamble, go with the CD. Even my stocks that have more or less "stalled out; ie .. GM" still pays a dividend, but that'll tend to be more in the 3% range every 3 months. If / when it goes back up to $42 a share, I'll be well over 100% profit, plus the dividends.

My only worry with the stock market is selling at profit and the taxes .. that's why I don't sell. Long term, this stock money is for my kids. My future 401k / pension should get me by until i decide to buy a flying Ferrari ..