Doomsday Thread Redux

[XR7-4.6]

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Some of the best intentions .. I prefer the touched up versions.

Me too

Personal Truth = Opinion held by an individual
Political Truth = Opinion held by a group

My Personal opinion: Part of the breakdown I think we see politically comes from the "watering down" of common language. If we cannot agree on common terminology (like what is an issurrection), its hard for people with diametrically opposing views of the world to agree on objective truths.

We can be relieved that at least both sides did at least come to an unspoken unified agreement that the Capitol is the Capitol and “insurrection at the citadel of democracy” was grandstanding with a thesaurus

I was going to make a joke about some art that deserves to be left in the dustbin of history but I can't think of anything that's made it over 500 years old but I think should still be tossed. I might not find some ancient art very cool, but whatever, its interesting to see in a museum.

Most of the shit I think we should forget about is much newer. Even there, history takes care of itself (if noone values something be it a book, photo, painting, or sculpture) it gets tossed when it passes out of living memory of the initial creator/purchaser. Unless absolutely stunning, the child of the grandkid who inherited a gourd painted by their great grandma for their kid probably has no attachment to the gourd or great grandma.

I think you’re right, preservation tends to be natural selection, great or important art, sculpture or architecture is preserved even if it’s decayed or damaged, a flea market painting your grandparents got, not so much unless your a family that values heirlooms, but that’s a precarious position. I think art is subjective however, is there a painting made in the last 50 years worth infinite preservation? Probably not, but other beautiful creations of humanity? Cars, architecture, etc, unconventional applications of beauty? I think there will be a Shelby Cobra in someone’s collection or museum 1000 years from now if civilization survives as long. Modern scholars debate whether something like that can even be constituted as art, but that has far more impact on culture than post modern nonsense on conventional canvases has.

 

[gunn]

Me too

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We can be relieved that at least both sides did at least come to an unspoken unified agreement that the Capitol is the Capitol and “insurrection at the citadel of democracy” was grandstanding with a thesaurus



I think you’re right, preservation tends to be natural selection, great or important art, sculpture or architecture is preserved even if it’s decayed or damaged, a flea market painting your grandparents not so much unless your a family that values heirlooms, but that’s a precarious position. I think art is subjective however, is there a painting made in the last 500 years worth infinite preservation? Probably not, but other beautiful creations of humanity? Cars, architecture, etc, unconventional applications of beauty? I think there will be a Shelby Cobra in someone’s collection or museum 1000 years from now if civilization survives as long. Modern scholars debate whether something like that can even be constituted as art, but that has far more impact on culture than post modern nonsense on conventional canvases has.

Hard disagree about lack of paintings less than 500 years having no value: Rembrandt, van Gogh, Monet, Magritte, Dali, and Picasso all created their work within the last 500 years.

I do agree about automobiles as art. Unless humans have to evacuate into space, or under ground, some examples of cars will survive.

I'm sure there's a at least one McLaren F1 parked in a doomsday bunker somewhere.

 

[XR7-4.6]

Hard disagree about lack of paintings less than 500 years having no value: Rembrandt, van Gogh, Monet, Magritte, Dali, and Picasso all created their work within the last 500 years.

Oops 50* I had 500 in my head from your previous post

 

[gunn]

Oops 50* I had 500 in my head from your previous post

The Marilyn Monroe portrait or Campbells soup cans by Warhol are just over 50 years old.
Some of Magritte and Dali's work is of similar age.
If the 50yr mark is a hard and fast line, i'd argue that some of Banksy's work is iconic and will stand the test of time: flower thrower, Balloon Girl, Kissing Coppers, his rat, or his Helicopter series.
If I had "lets collect art money", I'd buy some of his prints verified by Pest Control.

 

[Grog6]

I love banksy! When I first heard of the auction, of a piece of his work, that he was supporting, I wondered WTF? And then watching later on the news, ang lmao. You know there were people shitting a brick when it shredded! It's still the same piece if art, made into a one-off performance piece. You know he was somewhere watching this on camera, with a huge shit-eating grin on his face.

 

[Chingon1]

My question is, how does this predicament we are currently in get resolved??


Shit sucks and the whole earth is hurting.

 

[Vicinity]

Among the laundry list, preventing country X from blowing up the moon is priority number one

 

[gunn]

Q: Thought Exercise for today - what will Russia look like post-Putin?
It might not happen today or tomorrow but in 5-15 years, Putin won't be there.

Here's my opinion: we will see balkanization (like what happened in Yugoslavia)
- Every general who can command some remnant of the army will set themselves up as the leader of a chunk of the country with the most valuable pieces being the Moscow/St Petersberg areas, Crimea (which of course the Ukranians want back), Vladivostok, and Siberia.
- I'm pretty sure all of the major powers have plans to rush in and secure the nukes. With just under 6K weapons though, some generals will be able to get their hands on them before the Chinese/NATO/US SoF can get to them.
- The nearby world powers (US, NATO, China, and maybe even Iran) will decide to prop up/support the Generals that a) they think they can work with and b) willing to cut a deal exchange for the neighbor's security (aka "let me help you secure your nukes and I'll help you secure your new borders"). Democracy is not likely to make an appearance.
- Short of a cabal of Generals coming together, I'm not sure that anyone alive today could string the whole country back together post Putin. Alexy Navalny, the opposition leader that Putin locked up and threw away the key, has a history of being anti muslim and anti-central asian (the very russians who occupy the middle of the country). not a good look for someone. Besides, he has no army and even if he wanted to control whiter parts of Russia west of the Urals, he's from a small town outside of Novosibirsk and there's no reason a general stationed outside of Moscow would share his fire hydrant with this "country bumpkin".
- Siberia is where a lot of the riches lie. One option: in the 90s, it was proposed that the US could offer the modern equivalent of the Alaska Purchase. In a modern scenario, the US (or the Chinese) would pay stupid money to buy all of this land. You'd essentially pay what's left of Russia to buy out the soon to be less frozen chunk to the east. Potential buyers include the US, Chia, or EU. Even more interesting options would be those countries with giant sovereign wealth funds: Norway ($1.5T,), Singapore $2T, Saudi Arabia (who needs water - $1.35T), or UAE ($2T).

Proposal first came out in 1992 as an OPED in the LA TImes

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archive.is

It's not the worst idea.

 

[Trunk Monkey]

I love banksy! When I first heard of the auction, of a piece of his work, that he was supporting, I wondered WTF? And then watching later on the news, ang lmao. You know there were people shitting a brick when it shredded! It's still the same piece if art, made into a one-off performance piece. You know he was somewhere watching this on camera, with a huge shit-eating grin on his face.

It's my understanding that he was in the room at the time and triggered the shredder with his phone or remotely some how. So, yeah, he was there when it happened.

 

[Trunk Monkey]

Q: Thought Exercise for today - what will Russia look like post-Putin?
It might not happen today or tomorrow but in 5-15 years, Putin won't be there.

Here's my opinion: we will see balkanization (like what happened in Yugoslavia)
- Every general who can command some remnant of the army will set themselves up as the leader of a chunk of the country with the most valuable pieces being the Moscow/St Petersberg areas, Crimea (which of course the Ukrainians want back), Vladivostok, and Siberia.
- I'm pretty sure all of the major powers have plans to rush in and secure the nukes. With just under 6K weapons though, some generals will be able to get their hands on them before the Chinese/NATO/US SoF can get to them.
- The nearby world powers (US, NATO, China, and maybe even Iran) will decide to prop up/support the Generals that a) they think they can work with and b) willing to cut a deal exchange for the neighbor's security (aka "let me help you secure your nukes and I'll help you secure your new borders"). Democracy is not likely to make an appearance.
- Short of a cabal of Generals coming together, I'm not sure that anyone alive today could string the whole country back together post Putin. Alexy Navalny, the opposition leader that Putin locked up and threw away the key, has a history of being anti Muslim and anti-central Asian (the very Russians who occupy the middle of the country). not a good look for someone. Besides, he has no army and even if he wanted to control whiter parts of Russia west of the Urals, he's from a small town outside of Novosibirsk and there's no reason a general stationed outside of Moscow would share his fire hydrant with this "country bumpkin".
- Siberia is where a lot of the riches lie. One option: in the 90s, it was proposed that the US could offer the modern equivalent of the Alaska Purchase. In a modern scenario, the US (or the Chinese) would pay stupid money to buy all of this land. You'd essentially pay what's left of Russia to buy out the soon to be less frozen chunk to the east. Potential buyers include the US, China, or EU. Even more interesting options would be those countries with giant sovereign wealth funds: Norway ($1.5T,), Singapore $2T, Saudi Arabia (who needs water - $1.35T), or UAE ($2T).

Proposal first came out in 1992 as an OPED in the LA Times

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archive.is

It's not the worst idea.

Very interesting premise. I wish I had time to discuss this but I'm really busy with work right now.

 

[gunn]

It's my understanding that he was in the room at the time and triggered the shredder with his phone or remotely some how. So, yeah, he was there when it happened.

Banksy has a pretty good gig: wealth, fame, AND anonymity.

Noone is making deepfakes of him or complains when he shows up to his boyfriend/girlfriends place of work to support him/her..

 

[gunn]

Here's an interesting video I watched today. I'm always a little skeptical about youtube-based "journalists" but a lot of what this guy claims can be independantly verified.
- The video starts out showing all sorts of "tofu dregs" aka substandard construction in China, explains how the corners were cut (unwashed sea-based sand used in place of river sand in concrete, skipping on cure times, fake rebar, etc.) but then goes into the rise/fall of the largest real estate group turned investment ponzi scheme Evergrande group.

Pretty interesting 42 minutes

Tofu Dreg construction has been an issue for YEARS - https://thediplomat.com/2012/02/chinas-dangerous-tofu-projects/
This one is hillarious - govt was paying to redevelop and area and would pay to rebuild houses in a specific area. Scammers would build a bunch of fake houses out of bamboo and plywood and were expecting a payday. Govt realizes its being duped and says NOPE.

https://archive.is/ahMDV

Evergrande going poof! https://www.businessinsider.com/chi...ate-crisis-debts-collapse-what-happens-2024-2

My worry: while this economic implosion would be a significant set back for the chinese economy considering how many people/companies have been tied up with this monolith (makes me want to check my exposure to the chinese market in some of my foreign ETFs), there has been one surefire way used by several countries in similar situations in history to a) distract the populace and b) jump start their economy esp mfg industries.

War.


---
As a corollory to this, look at the overproduction and waste from the rise/collapse of bike share companies in China

The Bike-Share Oversupply in China: Huge Piles of Abandoned and Broken Bicycles

Gigantic piles of impounded, abandoned, and broken bicycles have become a familiar sight in many Chinese cities, after a rush to build up its new bike-sharing industry vastly overreached.

www.theatlantic.com

Its repeating with EVs b/c of govt subsidies. Such a fucking waste.

China’s Abandoned, Obsolete Electric Cars Are Piling Up in Cities

A subsidy-fueled boom helped build China into an electric-car giant but left weed-infested lots across the nation brimming with unwanted battery-powered vehicles.

www.bloomberg.com

 

[Grog6]

I have a serious question for everyone. What do you think would happen, if this happened:

Among the laundry list, preventing country X from blowing up the moon is priority number one

What do you think would happen, from being instantly blown into powder, to 10 large chunks?

 

[MadMikeyL]

If they are going to blow up the moon, they better wait until after the eclipse, or I’ll be PISSED!

 

[gunn]

Russian missile factory just had a (un) scheduled missile test.

https://www.reddit.com/r/UkraineWarVideoReport/s/K8brhb4SDN

Massive explosion rocks 'Russian military factory' as huge fireball erupts

The location of the explosion is close to the Votkinsk Machine-Building plant - which produces oil, gas, machine tools, and military equipment, according to unconfirmed reports.

www.express.co.uk

Massive Explosion Reported Near Russian City That Is Home To Missile Production Plant

A large explosion lit up the night sky on February 7 near Votkinsk, a city about 1,000 kilometers east of Moscow that is the location of a Russian military production facility.

www.rferl.org

 

[Trunk Monkey]

My question is, how does this predicament we are currently in get resolved??


Shit sucks and the whole earth is hurting.

There is no one size fits all answer to that question and even if we had the answers (to some issues we do) but the will to follow through to make it happen isn't there globally and probably never will be.

It's a miracle the planet is hanging on as well as it is, as we (as a species), continue to fuck it up.

The simplest answer is live your life responsibly, use your brain to really understand what's going on politically in our county and vote accordingly.

Don't believe everything you hear but do the homework to find legitimate, reputable sources to verify what you've heard and even then make sure you understand the big picture.

Don't litter, don't set your truck up to "roll coal" and other irresponsible environmental acts, etc.

But yeah, shit sucks and the Earth is hurting. No arguing that point here.

 

[Trunk Monkey]

Personal Truth = Opinion held by an individual
Political Truth = Opinion held by a group

My Personal opinion: Part of the breakdown I think we see politically comes from the "watering down" of common language. If we cannot agree on common terminology (like what is an insurrection), its hard for people with diametrically opposing views of the world to agree on objective truths.

Absolutely. There's a whole political machine devoted to rebranding words to fit a narrative or to sway opinions a certain way.

• Language & Framing – Control the words – This tactic became professionalized when in 1994 Newt Gingrich hired the word smith Frank Luntz, Communication Specialist, Luntz Global
  • Instead of Estate Tax say “Death Tax”
  • Instead of poor people say “The Takers”
  • Don’t tax rich people. I mean “Encourage the job creators.”
  • What’s the difference between drilling for oil and “Energy Exploration”?
  • Don’t let black people vote. I meant clamp down on voter fraud.
  • Health care reform becomes “Government Take Over of Health Care”
  • This is my or the network’s opinion becomes “Some people say …”
  • Etc.

 

[XR7-4.6]

Absolutely. There's a whole political machine devoted to rebranding words to fit a narrative or to sway opinions a certain way.

• Language & Framing – Control the words – This tactic became professionalized when in 1994 Newt Gingrich hired the word smith Frank Luntz, Communication Specialist, Luntz Global
  • Instead of Estate Tax say “Death Tax”
  • Instead of poor people say “The Takers”
  • Don’t tax rich people. I mean “Encourage the job creators.”
  • What’s the difference between drilling for oil and “Energy Exploration”?
  • Don’t let black people vote. I meant clamp down on voter fraud.
  • Health care reform becomes “Government Take Over of Health Care”
  • This is my or the network’s opinion becomes “Some people say …”
  • Etc.

Yep, here’s a few others

• Instead of biological man/woman say “cisgender”
• Instead of homeless say “experiencing homelessness” or “being unhoused”
• Instead of illegal immigrants say “undocumented worker”
• Instead of prostitute say “sex worker”
• Instead of Merry Christmas say “happy holidays”
• Don’t call it a Riot, call it a “mostly peaceful protest”
• Don’t say committed suicide, say “unalived themselves”

 

[gunn]

Yep, here’s a few others

• Instead of biological man/woman say “cisgender”

What does 'cisgender' mean?

If your birth announcement still feels accurate to your gender, then you're cis

www.merriam-webster.com

You fucked this one up. A biological man who presents themselves as a woman isn't cisgender.

• Instead of Merry Christmas say “happy holidays”

There are a bunch of holidays besides Christmas around December. Even if you don't celebrate them, it doesn't make any of their holidays any less valid than yours.

• Don’t say committed suicide, say “unalived themselves”

Yeah, this one is dumb. I'm not sure anyone uses this unless they are trying to get around a censorship bot.

I do agree that the other definitions seem to push an agenda just like TMs examples.

 

[theterminator93]

You fucked this one up. A biological man who presents themselves as a woman isn't cisgender.

Nah. He didn't say anything about a biological man who thinks he's a woman being cis. Biological gender = birth gender = gender identity = cis.

There are a bunch of holidays besides Christmas around December. Even if you don't celebrate them, it doesn't make any of their holidays any less valid than yours.

Putting it bluntly, I'll wish people happiness on whatever holiday I feel like observing. It has nothing to do with the [in]validity of any particular holiday.

I wouldn't take any offense to someone wishing me a Happy Hanukah or Ramadan or whatever despite my not being Jewish or Muslim; their saying that to me is their way of celebrating that holiday and custom/tradition, and I'm happy for them for doing so. If someone gets angry or takes offense because someone with different beliefs wishes them happiness, then the problem has nothing to do with the goodwill wisher...

 

[XR7-4.6]

Exactly, I’m an atheist, I don’t care what season’s greeting you give me, and I’d actually like to hear the variety of other greetings, not the all encompassing cold and generic “happy holidays”. “Holiday party” especially, just phonetically speaking that hurts my ear

 

[Trunk Monkey]

Exactly, I’m an atheist, I don’t care what season’s greeting you give me, and I’d actually like to hear the variety of other greetings, not the all encompassing cold and generic “happy holidays”. “Holiday party” especially, just phonetically speaking that hurts my ear

Happy Kwanzaa!

Because every African name ends in an A or two!

 

[gunn]

... so we might have already supassed the 1.5C temp rise cliff.

Oops, Scientists May Have Miscalculated Our Global Warming Timeline

Clues have emerged that reveal a much hotter history than we thought.

www.popularmechanics.com

 

[gunn]

So its not the covid vaccine or 5G we should worry about, but fuckin' cheerios and oats messing with fertility and human development

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ktla.com

The studies aren't conclusive yet, but some do show that this pesticide messes with humans.

Chemical Found In Cheerios, Quaker Oats May Cause Fertility Issues, Study Suggests: What To Know About Chlormequat

Researchers found four in five Americans have been exposed to the “toxic” pesticide chlormequat, which is used in oat-based foods like Cheerios and Quaker Oats Old Fashioned Oats and can cause fertility problems in animals.

www.forbes.com

Personally, I'm done having kids BUT this is a little bit of a concern for my kid.
This pesticide does seem to show that it messes with rat development though

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www.sciencedirect.com

TLDR: I suspect this story will develop but for now, if you can afford it, maybe buy organic products? Now, they might not be really organic, but at least you have a fig leaf instead of knowingly injesting this chemical which has unknown effects.

 

[Trunk Monkey]

So its not the covid vaccine or 5G we should worry about, but fuckin' cheerios and oats messing with fertility and human development

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ktla.com

The studies aren't conclusive yet, but some do show that this pesticide messes with humans.

Chemical Found In Cheerios, Quaker Oats May Cause Fertility Issues, Study Suggests: What To Know About Chlormequat

Researchers found four in five Americans have been exposed to the “toxic” pesticide chlormequat, which is used in oat-based foods like Cheerios and Quaker Oats Old Fashioned Oats and can cause fertility problems in animals.

www.forbes.com

Personally, I'm done having kids BUT this is a little bit of a concern for my kid.
This pesticide does seem to show that it messes with rat development though

Loading…

www.sciencedirect.com

TLDR: I suspect this story will develop but for now, if you can afford it, maybe buy organic products? Now, they might not be really organic, but at least you have a fig leaf instead of knowingly ingesting this chemical which has unknown effects.

Interesting but not surprising. Everything made today is hazardous to our health in large enough quantities. You'd probably have to eat boxes of Cheerios every week to build enough exposure to cause a problem. Everything in moderation.

 

[gunn]

We've all seen the unrest in hotspots in Yemen and Somali... but just last night I learned about things heating up in two other aireas globally:

Venuzuela and Guyana: of course, its over oil. 11B barrels worth discovered by ExxonMobil for a country of just 800K (Guyana). Venuzuela, not content to have wasted their resources, seems to want to muscle in on this piece. The US, being no friends of Maduro, are being asked to intervene.

A Path to Prosperity for Oil-Rich Guyana

Guyana's vast oil reserves could catapult the country to new heights of prosperity—or plunge it into poverty.

hir.harvard.edu

Its not much military HW being staged near the border but the mere threat (esp their Iranian built missile gunboats), increases the insurance costs for boats leaving Guyana similar to the cost for ships passing through the Red sea. Basically, this is a bigger bully neighbor throwing their weight around in an effort to make it so that Guyana will be forced to cut them a piece of the action OR spend more money defending "what's right".

https://www.cnn.com/2024/02/09/americas/venezuela-guyana-border-troops-intl-latam/index.html

Lloyd's expands warning on Red Sea, adds Guyana, on rising tensions

Lloyd's expands warning on Red Sea, adds Guyana, on rising tensions

www.intelligentinsurer.com

On the other side of the world, Burma's military junta is under stress because a bunch of the rebel armies are starting to roll up the various military govt forts and even one regional headquarters. I had no idea that the ethnic minorities there had significant armies. My family in Thailand always viewed the fighting in Burma as "just burmese folks doing burmese things" without much elaboration.

https://www.cnn.com/2023/11/28/asia/myanmar-nationwide-offensive-junta-intl-hnk/index.html

Losses have been significant enough that Burma has called for a nationwide conscription

https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/myanmar-juntas-conscription-plan-lays-bare-toll-fighting-rebels-2024-02-16/

The conscription plan, slated to start in April, will require all men aged 18 to 35 and women aged 18 to 27 to serve for up to two years, while specialists like doctors aged up to 45 must serve for three years. The service can be extended to a total of five years, according to state media.

Apparently some of the fighting has caused the burmese military govt/border patrol to flee into neighboring countries to escape the rebels

340 Myanmar troops flee into Bangladesh during fighting with armed ethnic group

Bangladesh's foreign minister says 340 members of Myanmar’s Border Guard Police and soldiers have fled into Bangladesh during fighting with an ethnic minority army

abcnews.go.com

So, i don't think Burma will have global implications just yet, but in theory a larger civil war there will cause a humanitarian problem for its neighbors. Thailand isn't a rich country but it IS more stable than these other border states so a humanitarian crisis on their borders may prevent them from helping with other regional issues which may flare up (ahem, China).

 

[gunn]

You know who else starts speaking gibberish? Babies. Skynet may be arriving sooner than expected.

ChatGPT suddenly starts sending alarming messages to users

AI system has started speaking nonsense, talking Spanglish without prompting, and worrying users by suggesting it is in the room with them

www.independent.co.uk

 

[XR7-4.6]

I wonder how pro-lifers feel about aborting AI

 

[Grog6]

Among the laundry list, preventing country X from blowing up the moon is priority number one

If they are going to blow up the moon, they better wait until after the eclipse, or I’ll be PISSED!

Guys, this is not a serious worry, trust me. The really big nuke we set off, castle bravo? it was about 15 Megaton tnt equivalent. We think, those could be expanded to about 500MT. That's way, way smaller than the rock that made tycho crater, by a factor of about 1000. If we dumped everything into one spot, it would only be a 150 mile wide crater.
Nobody is doing a damn thing to the moon, that hasn't happened way worse in the past.

Here's a question a lot of people get wrong. "What happens if the sun suddenly becomes a black hole of the same mass?" The Moon? Mars?
This one fucked with me, but I've worked the math.

 

[MarkM TCCoA VP Emeritus]

You need to prepare for all possible contingencies, known and unknown.

I personally have been planning an offensive assault against the Mole people should they ever emerge from their subterranean labyrinth . The truth is out there.

Mark